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congeriesKahneman, Smith Win 2002 Nobel Economics Prize
STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - Americans Daniel Kahneman and Vernon Smith shared the 2002 Nobel economics prize on Wednesday for work on how psychology affects people's buying decisions, and for developing laboratory experiments in economics.
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said that Kahneman, 68, and Smith, 75, will share the prestigious $1 million prize for groundbreaking studies beyond the traditional assumption of rational human economic behavior driven by self interest.
Smith, born in Wichita, Kansas, is a professor of economics and law at George Mason University in Virginia.
"He has developed an array of experimental methods, setting standards for what constitutes a reliable laboratory experiment," the academy said.
Smith spearheaded "wind-tunnel tests" where trials of new market designs, such as a deregulated electricity market, are carried out in a lab before being implemented in practice.
Kahneman, born in Tel Aviv, is also a citizen of Israel. He is a professor of public affairs at Princeton University and the first Israeli to win the Nobel economics prize.
"Kahneman has integrated insights from psychology into economics, thereby laying the foundation for a new field of research," the academy said.
He discovered how human judgement may take shortcuts that systematically depart from basic principles of probability.
как-то хочется побольше про это всё разузнать...
STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - Americans Daniel Kahneman and Vernon Smith shared the 2002 Nobel economics prize on Wednesday for work on how psychology affects people's buying decisions, and for developing laboratory experiments in economics.
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said that Kahneman, 68, and Smith, 75, will share the prestigious $1 million prize for groundbreaking studies beyond the traditional assumption of rational human economic behavior driven by self interest.
Smith, born in Wichita, Kansas, is a professor of economics and law at George Mason University in Virginia.
"He has developed an array of experimental methods, setting standards for what constitutes a reliable laboratory experiment," the academy said.
Smith spearheaded "wind-tunnel tests" where trials of new market designs, such as a deregulated electricity market, are carried out in a lab before being implemented in practice.
Kahneman, born in Tel Aviv, is also a citizen of Israel. He is a professor of public affairs at Princeton University and the first Israeli to win the Nobel economics prize.
"Kahneman has integrated insights from psychology into economics, thereby laying the foundation for a new field of research," the academy said.
He discovered how human judgement may take shortcuts that systematically depart from basic principles of probability.
как-то хочется побольше про это всё разузнать...
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Насчет Каhnemann'a
Date: 2002-10-09 04:22 pm (UTC)Каhnemann прославился тем, что вместе со своим покойным коллегой Амосом Тверским (Amos Tversky) исследовал проблему Human Decision Making и предложил альтернативу т. н. Expected Utility Theory (EUT)- их теория называется Prospect Theory (PT) .Tеоретические обоснования первой - в Von Neumann & Morgenstern 1944, Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, второй - Kahneman & Tversky 1979, Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk, Econonometrica 47.
Simple formalization of the human decision making problem: people choose between lotteries. Each lottery is defined as (X1,P1;...Xn,Pn), where X-s are all possible outcomes and P-s are their respective probabilities.
EUT assumes that people derive certain utility from outcomes and, as consequence, of lotteries. (of course, people do not consume lotteries, this assumption is only used to show which lottery with which outcomes will actually be chosen). Hence an utility function is defined, which for each possible state Xi attaches a utility level. There are many different sets of axioms that such a function satisfies, but this is currently irrelevant. 2 important rules emerge:
1. utility of a lottery is the probability-weighted sum of utilities of its outcomes.
2. a lottery is acceptable only if its utility integrated with current state (wealth) level is higher than the utility of current state (wealth) level
Of course, people always act to maximize their (expected) utility
Roughly speaking, people that follow these rules are called "rational" in economic theory.
Kahneman and Tversky noticed (after Allais in 1953 and Markowitz in 1959) that these rules are often violated. For example, when asked to choose between receiving 3,000 with certainty and 4000 with 80% chance, 80% of the subjects chose the second option. When asked to choose between receiving 4000 with 20% chance or 3000 with 25% chance, 65% of the same subjecys chose the first option. Etc - currently there's plenty of such examples.
They assume that people derive utility not from final wealth states (outcomes) but from changes, transitions from state to state. The changes are measured relative to a reference point, which may be situated wherever you like it (they were psychologists, not economists :)
One of current trends in economics is conducting experiments, just as psychologists always done. Current experimental findings provide substantial support to th PT and its latter developments. So the people are treated as non (or boundedly) - rational.
For a review see Thaler 1991- Quasi rational economics, 1994 - advances in behavioral finance, 1998 - the winnere's curse or visit his website at Chicago Business School
Вот за все это он и получил Нобелевскую премию
Re: Насчет Каhnemann'a
Date: 2002-10-09 10:47 pm (UTC)первое, что приходит в голову - зоны ближайшего развития. там тоже фокус на изменении, не на результате, а на процессе, который зависит от изначального состояния (которое меняется, соотвественно, меняя и весь процесс).
я бы, конечно, называл это всё экономической психологией, а не экономикой. потому что переход из одной системы координат в другую, вообще говоря, не очевиден. то, что демонстрируется на уровне одного человека, может и не работать на уровне "систем человеков"...
но надо побольше почитать, какие, собственно, они "эксперименты" делали...
спасибо ещё раз, приятный подарок с утра... :)